Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $0.023M, GAAP net loss was ($4.657M) and diluted EPS was ($0.16); adjusted EBITDA loss was ($3.911M). Cash, equivalents and short-term investments rose to $26.8M as of 12/31/2024, largely supported by ATM proceeds in Q4 .
Management highlighted sustained progress with STMicro (moving toward process qualification) and two “transformative” new customers initiating demo wafer programs, but disclosed one transformative negotiation has stalled, tempering near-term commercialization visibility .
Q1 2025 revenue is not expected; NRE revenue from a fabless licensee may slip into Q2 depending on wafer shipment timing. 2025 non-GAAP OpEx guidance was raised to $17–$18M (from $16–$17M prior), reflecting planned investments in outsourced engineering and headcount .
Strategic narrative centers on MST enabling Gate-All-Around (GAA) at advanced logic nodes (AI compute), DRAM/HBM efficiency, RF-SOI performance, and 48V data center power (SPX), plus emerging GaN-on-Si opportunity with Sandia CINT electrical results imminent; catalysts include ST process qualification entry and GaN data readouts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

STMicro progress remains on track toward production following a formal process qualification step, which will also trigger license revenue recognition (“we are still on track to go to production as soon as development and qual are complete”) .
Engagements expanded at advanced nodes (GAA) and DRAM, with multiple customers pursuing MST in key transistor regions; two “transformative” large manufacturers moved to implementation (demo wafer runs and comprehensive validation programs) .
Balance sheet strengthened: $26.8M cash and investments vs. $17.3M at Q3; ~$12.8M net raised via ATM in Q4 (2.2M shares at $5.92 avg), limiting dilution relative to earlier 2024 .

What Went Wrong

One transformative negotiation stalled despite strong technical evidence and economics, underscoring internal decision frictions at large customers and lengthening time-to-close risk .
Revenue cadence remains de minimis: Q4 2024 revenue $23k vs. $550k in Q4 2023; management guided to no revenue in Q1 2025, indicating limited near-term P&L visibility .
2025 non-GAAP OpEx was raised to $17–$18M (vs. prior $16–$17M), reflecting investment needs despite constrained revenue; while prudent for execution, it lifts cash burn run-rate in 2025 .

Financial Results

Income statement summary by quarter (older → newer)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$550	$72	$22	$23
Gross Margin ($USD Thousands)	$522	($2)	$19	$10
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)	$5,319	$4,628	$4,819	$4,882
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)	($4,580)	($4,361)	($4,595)	($4,657)
Diluted EPS ($USD)	($0.18)	($0.16)	($0.17)	($0.16)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	($3,765)	($3,630)	($3,881)	($3,911)

Balance sheet KPIs (older → newer)

KPI	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Cash + ST investments ($USD Thousands)	$19,531 (Cash $12,591 + ST inv $6,940)	$18,288	$17,342	$26,773
Deferred Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$0	$13	$8	$4
Total Liabilities ($USD Thousands)	$5,859	$4,389	$4,247	$4,047
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted, ‘000s)	25,404	26,467	27,406	28,934
Shares Outstanding (Period-End, ‘000s)	N/A	27,622/28,289 per filing context	28,289	30,540; total shares outstanding 30,100 reported

Revenue composition (where disclosed)

Quarter	MSTcad License ($USD Thousands)	Engineering Services/NRE ($USD Thousands)	Total Revenue ($USD Thousands)
Q2 2024	~$22 (balance after $50 NRE)	$50	$72
Q3 2024	$22	$0 (not disclosed)	$22
Q4 2024	Not disclosed; revenue = $23	Not disclosed	$23

Actuals vs consensus (Q4 2024)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$23	N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)*	N/A
Diluted EPS ($USD)	($0.16)	N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)*	N/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	($3,911)	N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)*	N/A

*Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis due to access limits.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Non-GAAP OpEx	FY 2025	~$16–$17M	~$17–$18M	Raised
Revenue	Q1 2025	Not provided previously (Q4 2024 guided ~Q3-like ~$20k)	Not expecting to recognize revenue	Lowered near-term expectations
NRE Revenue timing (fabless licensee)	Q1–Q2 2025	N/A	May occur in either Q1 or Q2 depending on wafer shipment	New timing disclosure
ST license revenue milestone	Upon entry into process qualification	Recognition upon completion/entry to qualification maintained	Recognition upon formal process qualification entry maintained	Maintained
FY 2024 non-GAAP OpEx	FY 2024	$16.25–$16.75M	Actual $15.4M (non-GAAP OpEx)	Came in below guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Q-2)	Q3 2024 (Q-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
STMicro (Smart Power)	“Making solid progress on a production release”; tight weekly collaboration; timing proprietary	ST confirmed moving toward production; royalties expected after qual; cannot comment on timing	Next step is formal process qualification (~9 months typical); revenue recognized upon entering qualification	Steady progress; timeline clarity framed via qualification milestone
GAA (AI-related advanced nodes)	Working with major manufacturers down to 3nm; materials engineering/epi emphasized	GAA adoption highlighted; dopant blocking/epi integration; multiple customers engaged	MST solutions across channel, contact, S/D/backside; easier epi insertion; traction building	Growing strategic emphasis and customer pull
DRAM/HBM	Multi-memory engagements; faster node churn may ease adoption	Memory valued >$110B; epitaxy entering flows; multiple customers engaged	HBM efficiency as AI power driver (hyperscaler memory ~40% of power); pursuing benefits	Expanding narrative tied to AI infra efficiency
RF-SOI	Soitec thin wafer substrate collaboration to ease adoption	Continued progress; Soitec collaboration referenced; thin wafers facilitate dev-to-production	Working with majority of RF-SOI device makers; substrate ease reiterated	Adoption enablers improving; still pre-license announcements
Power (SPX, 7–48V)	SPX whitepaper: best-in-class Rsp vs BVdss; economics compelling	48V data center rack transition opportunity; SPX tailored to 48V	SPX optimized for 48V; target hyperscaler racks; early customer outreach	Clear focus on 48V as near-term wedge
GaN-on-Si	Early results; potential near-term sampling revenue in 2024 (aspirational)	Sandia CINT user project for electrical validation; faster time-to-revenue potential	Electrical results “imminent”; faster go-to-market via wafer supply if validated	Building toward electrical proof; potential new revenue path
CHIPS Act	First proposal submitted; additional headcount planned	Active participation; multiple funding avenues in compound semis	Not directly discussed in prepared remarks; Sandia project independent of CHIPS	Ongoing funding optionality
Sales/BD execution	New VP (Shawn Thomas) to accelerate closes	Increased proposals; optimism on transformative negotiation	Two new transformative customers in implementation; one stalled negotiation acknowledged	Pipeline deepening; close complexity persists

Management Commentary

“ST continues to progress very well in both design and manufacturability efforts… Typically, the industry takes about 9 months on [process qualification]… we are planning to announce when we enter process qualification, which will also result in us recognizing license revenue” — Scott Bibaud, CEO .
“The barrier to incorporate MST into [GAA] process flow is much lower… GAA requires at least twice as many EPI steps… we anticipate our partnerships… will significantly increase the potential for MST” — Scott Bibaud .
“We continue to make inroads in the power semiconductor market… MST-SP for 5V and SPX for 5–48V… projected to be worth over $52 billion in 2024” — Scott Bibaud .
“Our balance of cash… was $26.8 million… During Q4, we raised net proceeds of $12.8 million… As of December 31, 2024, we had 30.1 million shares outstanding” — Frank Laurencio, CFO .
“For 2025, we expect our non-GAAP OpEx to be… $17 million to $18 million… we will be conservative about any structural increases in spending” — Frank Laurencio .
“Last quarter… a transformative customer… at this point, we have to say it has stalled” — Scott Bibaud .

Q&A Highlights

Transformative negotiation dynamics: Management emphasized strong value/technical proof but noted internal decision-making complexity at the customer; issue not technological (“that’s probably fair”) — Scott Bibaud .
GAA and memory traction: Greater “pull” and resourcing from advanced-node teams; epi prevalence lowers MST insertion cost/time .
GaN timing and validation: Awaiting imminent electrical results at Sandia; faster time-to-revenue possible via wafer supply if data is strong .
ST timeline: Original 18–24 month industry estimate was impacted by ~6-month installation delay by a third party; teams working “very well” together; cannot comment on exact schedule .
48V data center power: SPX tailored for 48V racks; market led by major power IC vendors; Atomera engaging target customers now .
Analog customer using MSTcad: Identified as one of the two transformative customers; internal simulations drove comprehensive wafer validation plans .

Estimates Context

Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis due to access limits; therefore, no revenue/EPS/EBITDA consensus comparisons are included for Q4 2024 or prior quarters. Atomera’s limited coverage historically can exacerbate data availability. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term revenue limited: Q1 2025 revenue is not expected; watch for NRE recognition upon fabless wafer shipment and, more importantly, ST’s entry into process qualification (license revenue trigger) .
Execution lever: ST qualification announcement is the pivotal commercialization step; typical ~9-month qualification suggests a clear pathway from the milestone to production royalties thereafter .
Strategic optionality: MST’s epi-friendly insertion across GAA, DRAM/HBM, RF-SOI, and 48V power expands addressable catalysts tied to AI infrastructure scaling and data center efficiency .
GaN as incremental path: Sandia CINT electrical validation is a tangible catalyst; wafer-supply route could deliver faster time to revenue than integration licensing if results are compelling .
Balance sheet runway improved: $26.8M cash and ST investments at year-end, supplemented by ATM proceeds, supports 2025 investment in engineering and BD with moderated dilution .
Cost discipline vs. capacity: 2025 non-GAAP OpEx guidance raised to support execution; monitor cash use and hiring pace against visibility of revenue milestones .
Pipeline quality: Two new transformative customers progressing into implementation; one stalled negotiation highlights closing risk at large OEMs—expect lumpy announcements, but increasing breadth raises odds of conversion over time .

Appendix: Non-GAAP Adjustments Note

Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest, depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation; Atomera provides reconciliations and discloses that definitions may not be comparable to peers .

Atomera Inc (ATOM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary